By Jason Stuart
Ranger-Review Staff Writer
The spring thaw may seem like it’s an eternity away, but local, state and federal officials are already concerned about what may happen when the tremendous snowpack blanketing the Yellowstone River basin begins to melt away.
While the high amount of snow covering the region may ultimately be beneficial to agricultural producers, especially those in parts of the Yellowstone valley which have been drought-stricken for the last few years, the increased potential for flooding has disaster and emergency preparedness officials on high alert.
“It is concerning with the amount of snowfall we’ve had and the amount of snowfall to the west in the mountains,” said Mary Jo Gehnert, Dawson County Disaster and Emergency Services coordinator.
The snowpack water equivalent at the Yellowstone’s headwaters in Yellowstone National Park is at 117 percent of normal, according to data released Monday by the National Weather Service. The snowpack in the Upper Yellowstone basin in Montana is at 100 percent of normal. In the basin of the Bighorn River in Wyoming — the Yellowstone’s largest tributary — the snowpack is at 106 percent of normal. The basins of the Tongue and Powder rivers in Wyoming are a little less snowy — standing at 99 and 83 percent of normal, respectively — but winter is far from over and both are liable to reach above normal levels before the end.
That likelihood — and the likelihood that the snowpack across the Yellowstone basin will continue to grow — appears to be high, according to weather service climate modeling. The weather service’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for February to present from a greater than 33 percent to greater than 40 percent chance of above average precipitation across Eastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. The three-month forecast also predicts continued above average precipitation across Eastern Montana.
The wall of water that could come surging down the Yellowstone when all that snow melts — combined with the high potential for major ice jams on the river — is what has officials on edge, from the federal to the state to the local level.
The office of State Auditor Matt Rosendale sent out a notice Monday encouraging Montanans living along the Yellowstone to purchase flood insurance ahead of this spring’s thaw. Rosendale, a resident of Dawson County, noted in his statement that it typically takes 30 days from purchase for a flood insurance policy to take effect and that those thinking of buying a policy should do so now so they are sure to be covered when the snows melt.
Rosendale also reminded people from personal experience about how suddenly and unexpectedly flooding from ice jams formed on the river can occur.
“People living near rivers or streams should be especially mindful, as ice jams can cause flooding earlier in the season than many expect,” Rosendale said. “One ice jam on the Yellowstone a couple years ago flooded about 800 acres of our ranch pasture and nearly came up to our house.”
As noted in Rosendale’s comments, it’s not just those living immediately along the Yellowstone who are at risk of flooding, and it’s not just the meltwater coming from upstream that local residents need to worry about.
Tanja Fransen, meteorologist in charge of the weather service’s Glasgow station, noted in a statement last week to media and local officials that the local snowpack is a concern as well. The weather service has measured the snowpack to the east of the Big Sheep Mountains (known to locals as ‘the Divide’) as being 2 to 4 inches of liquid water equivalent, which Fransen further noted represents one-quarter to one-third of the area’s annual precipitation total. Once that melts, it could create localized flooding as the water comes surging down creek beds and coulees.
“When this melts, it could cause some flooding issues in the streams and creeks, especially since we still have a few more months of snowfall season left,” Fransen said.
As far as preparing for that potential eventuality, Gehnert said she is primarily doing so by making sure that she and local emergency responders remain on high alert and watch the river very closely.
“All my first responders will be kept in the loop and on standby during that warm-up season,” Gehnert said.
Besides that, and having standing evacuation and emergency response plans, there’s not much more Gehnert can do to prepare. Sandbags, for instance, are of limited value to the Glendive area in the case of a major flood event, Gehnert said.
She said she used to keep a stockpile of sandbags, but has “no safe place to keep them,” and that mice got into them and made a mess of them, ultimately leading her to get rid of them. She hasn’t replaced the sandbag stockpile both due to lack of place to put them and because she said that with the river running right through Glendive and the way ice jams occur in the area, it would take a veritable mountain of them to make any impact.
“We have looked at that in the past, and depending on where the river jams we would need a large amount of sandbags to make a difference,” Gehnert said.
In the event sandbags were needed, Gehnert said a call would go out for mutual aid to surrounding counties which do have stockpiles of them, however, even then she said DES would likely only have enough to shore up the West Glendive levee.
“I can put sandbags on top of the levee, but I can’t provide them for individual people, that’d be just crazy to do that,” Gehnert said.
For individual property owners, Gehnert said the best course of action is to be prepared and keep a wary eye on the river. She said as the thaw approaches, landowners along the Yellowstone need to make sure to move any livestock or farm equipment to high ground, while those with homes in potential flood zones should have their own plan to protect their valuable property from destruction and an evacuation plan ready to execute if the need arises.
“I encourage people in low-lying areas to make a plan for themselves,” she said.
Gehnnert also encouraged locals who have not already done so to sign up for the county’s new emergency mass notification system. To sign up for it, simply visit the county website at www.dawsoncountymontana.org and click on the link at the bottom of the home page.
All anybody can do is prepare for the worst, Gehnert said, though noting while officials are concerned about the flooding potential this spring, it is impossible to actually predict what will happen or when.
“I’ve lived in Montana long enough not to predict anything,” Gehnert said. “We’ll have some water coming at us, I just don’t know when. I’m no smarter than anybody else when it comes to looking at that river and predicting what’s going to happen. It’s a force of its own.”
Reach Jason Stuart at rrreporter@rangerreview.com.